January 7, 2008

I Got Iowa Right, So . . . Obama and McCain in New Hampshire

 

Tuesday, January 1 – The Iowa Caucuses are upon us, for better and worse. The process is deeply flawed, but for the moment it’s what we have, and many of us can’t help getting into the excitement of this remnant of our traditional politics.

 

I thought it might be interesting to write part of this week’s column before the caucuses, and the rest post-results – a more honest test than ex-post spin. I remember the famous poll results after the Kennedy assassination – that 80 percent of Americans remembered voting for JFK two years after his election win of less than 1 percent. New realities have a way of affecting our memories, especially about politics.

 

Two days to go. The polls are all over the place – from Barack Obama winning by six points, to Hillary Clinton winning by one – validating to anyone who enjoys discrediting polls. Of course the special nature of the caucuses creates particular polling problems. Still, I’ve always preferred real elections with real voters. My apologies up front to unmentioned candidates. I’m only including potential winners.

 

Perhaps it’s a result of hope over analysis, but I will go out on a limb and predict Obama as the victor over Sen. Clinton in Thursday’s virgin political event – by several points, with Hillary second, John Edwards a couple of points behind her, with the rest farther behind.

 

I will go with the pundits and predict Mike Huckabee for the Republicans. I kind of like the guy, and perhaps having a president that doesn’t believe in evolution might be a realistic representation of our great if somewhat innocent country. People prefer Mike to the mean-spirited and heroically opportunistic Mitt Romney. And evolution is unlikely to come up as a veto issue during the next term. John McCain still seems the most presidential. If he gave up his Iraq fixation, he might become more palatable for many independent voters.

 

As the caucuses approach, the press, after obsessing about Iowa and New Hampshire for months, is now minimizing their importance, and criticizing the exaggerated focus on these two small and unrepresentative states

 

The current system doesn’t make political sense. I would prefer dividing the primaries into three or four groups of states, rotating the order for each election – providing the opportunity for the “retail politics” of the status quo, but without distorting the influence of the same states every election.

 

Sunday morning, January 6 (you can take my word, or send someone to inspect my hard drive) – Here we are, one Iowa caucus and three days of spin later. I feel pretty good, at least lucky, about my predictions, except for some over-optimism concerning Hillary. The bigger questions have to do with what happens from here.

 

The combination of Obama’s sweet victory, his memorable speech and the positive surprise of the spin-masters just might change the framework of the campaign. Hillary put her best face on, but Bill was clearly not his pre-Monica happy-go-lucky self. I have a feeling he likes Obama, and would be supporting him if Hillary were not a factor.

 

For better and worse New Hampshire will tell more of the story. It’s a real election, with individuals in actual voting booths. Even reporters who have been critical of this primary process are into the game of it all, as am I, I must admit.

 

So will I quit while I’m ahead? Of course not. I will go out on a limb once again, this time with my success (or not) being more evident than on my word alone. 

 

For the Democrats – Obama once again, this time with Hillary a close second, and Edwards a more distant third. For reasons still not clear to me, the other more experienced candidates will still be behind, though I think that Bill Richardson may have a better showing among these savvy New England folks.

 

For the Republicans – John McCain, with Mitt close behind, a second blow to Mitt’s hopes, being in his own territory – well deserved I would add. I’ve been thinking out loud for a while now that McCain could well end up being the nominee, even if by default. He’s the only Republican candidate that could credibly play the president on TV, despite Fred Thompson’s acting experience, unless his writers were very good and not on strike. Rudy Giuliani is likely to become a permanent part of the 9/11 memorial. Apparently there is some wisdom in our besieged electorate.

 

Landing on these predictions, even hard, is of course your right. I would ask that since I’ve shown you mine, you also show yours also before the results are in. Might someone offer a prize for the best predictions?