July 23, 2007

Does America Understand It No Longer Rules the World?

 

We’re not yet ready for the U.S. version of The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, but the times, they are a’changin’ – power relationships along with them. Acting in rhythm with these shifts will maximize our well-being and remaining formidable influence. Unfortunately, our current leaders have been acting as if the world is very different. Denying these changes will hasten any ill effects and may cause further tragic miscalculations.

 

Since World War II, Americans have become accustomed to our being the principal or only superpower. It is difficult for us to imagine any other reality. I remember in grade school the common notion that we were the power in the world. That’s why the Sputnik surprise shook us up so. We were losing the ability to live in a world we don’t dominate.

 

We see ourselves as a country that determines which governments are recognized, which countries can buy certain products, what constitutes legitimate violence versus terrorism and what constitutes necessary environmental protocols, among others.

 

These days we confront a world of quite different power relationships – military, and even more economic and political. Using Thomas Friedman’s metaphor, the world is much flatter. Not only are Americans competing for jobs everywhere, with Indians and many others, but we also are competing for contracts, markets and political influence. We can’t just tell the folks how it’s gonna be anymore.

 

I’m not advocating less power for us. Having real power in this unstable world has its advantages, though also its downside. (For example, stronger currency makes our goods more expensive abroad.) I am advocating realism about the actual situation, and actions based on that realistic assessment.

 

We still have considerable power and influence, certainly more than any other single country. But we need to learn new ways to deal with others, to maintain our influence and maximize our well-being and security. Our current leaders have not yet achieved this important realization.

 

The U.S. still dominates the world of air power and technology, but we have seen the limited value of those assets in today’s world, unless our primary goal is to annihilate our adversaries and anyone who might be nearby. Other military assets have become more important. Intelligence, particularly human intelligence, is critical and unfortunately one of our weakest assets. Agility and mobility have also become key.

 

Power’s most important components today are economic and political. China and other countries own enough of our assets to cause severe disruption. Other markets have become more attractive to consumers. Other countries have become more user-friendly business partners in this increasingly entrepreneurial world. I’m sure you can think of other examples.

 

Power is also prestige. The U.S. has had a huge advantage in this area. American democracy and culture is enormously attractive to multitudes of people. American products are purchased wherever people can afford them. American spirit for solving any problem, and for any person reaching any position, has inspired people around the world. Our status has diminished in recent years, largely due to not recognizing changes that have occurred.

 

Implications of these changed power dynamics? Certainly not to pretend they don’t exist, or long nostalgically for the past. The good old days weren’t really so terrific anyway. In any case, they’re not now. “Who do they think they are?” implies that if the other party understood the true power relationships, they would not act the way they do. Might they understand them better than we do?

 

We can’t be the town bully anymore. We’ll have to learn to get along with the other kids on the block. We need to move from hubris to vulnerably, listening to others’ reality, not only the words, but also the subtle currents of our world. That’s real leadership in any case. Now we don’t even speak with people whose positions we don’t like.

 

Ultimatums (sic ultimata) are rarely a good approach to international tensions. They are especially problematic when those making threats can’t deliver. Our president echoes King Lear, “I know not what they will be, but they will be the horrors of the Earth.” Inaccurately imagined strength inevitably makes a person, group or country weaker in the long run.

 

If we can adapt, I believe we can look forward to significant power and influence and many generations of relative peace and well being – for ourselves and other inhabitants of our vulnerable planet. If not, who knows?