December 13, 2006

All This, And Still No Iraq Policy Change?

 

Like many other Americans, I feel some sense of relief that the Iraq Study Group’s report has weighed in on the side of a serious change in course. However, there is something amiss in the juxtaposition between the Administration’s reaction to the proposals and the reality that spawned them, which has me checking my atlas to be sure about my planet of residence.

 

There is something surreal about the president’s statements in the context of Iraq’s present reality. Those pronouncements, albeit downscaled from the “stay the course” message of the very recent past, conjures up images of Nero’s serenade to the burning of Rome, though in this case it’s Baghdad.

 

Of course, our principal satisfaction is in the fact that the report seems likely to move this disaster closer to its deserved and long-awaited end. I confess also to some giddiness from my less-noble self that the folks that forced this travesty on the rest of us might actually get their political come-uppance.

 

Every knowledgeable observer has concluded that Iraq is close to total violent chaos. The seven Study Group members who visited on-site were so shocked by what they encountered that they strongly considered submitting an early interim report, even at the possible cost of political credibility, afraid that the situation was too urgent to wait until after the elections. Many conservative journalists and politicians have had second thoughts, or re-remembered their original positions on the war. Even voices on Fox News have been heard to express some reservations about our Iraq Policy.

 

In response, the administration restates its opposition to speaking with Iran and Syria and/or reducing combat troops, and re-commits to focusing on helping the Iraqis to “stand up so we can stand down”. But hasn’t this been the policy for several years? Are they saying that now they really mean it, or perhaps that now they see the need to have a real plan to do it? No need to change course now, when we’re so close to winning the war. This all leaves me scratching my head.

 

One interpretation is that the president, like many predecessors, is focused on protecting, perhaps salvaging, his place in history. Lyndon Johnson stuck to his Vietnam guns for a long while. Even Harry Truman hung on to a vision of victory in Korea for longer than many less-invested observers. This president has put a lot of legacy eggs in this basket, and stopping here won’t do much for his historical image. During this last year, the people casting the movie on the Bush presidency have shifted the lead role from Harrison Ford to Sacha Baron Cohen.

 

The good news is that most previous presidents eventually came around, or at least got out of the way so others could change direction. But unfortunately this more benign interpretation may not adequately explain this particular case. We have been seeing an unusual level of cognitive dissonance and insider groupthink, even since before the invasion idea became public.

 

Some actually saw the Study Group as intended to provide political cover for a shift in direction, engineered by the President himself, or perhaps his still over-protective father. Whatever his motivation for initially legitimizing this process, incredibly the president seems to have thrown this life raft back to the boat. Does the president have something up his sleeve? I hope so, since the other possibility, that he just doesn’t see what everyone else does, would be much worse.

 

Might the president, having at first seen the political advantage of an outside rationale for backing off “stay the course”, just not been able to go through with it. Perhaps he discovered that some of the suggestions came from Bush Elder’s more sober hand. Maybe he just finds it psychologically or intellectually difficult to assimilate and put to use new data.

 

However noble his initial intentions, the Iraq disaster has resulted in serious damage to our great country and so many peoples’ lives. The president has one possibility remaining for some level of redemption. He must acknowledge the error of this adventure and ask for help from Americans, traditional allies, and even some who would celebrate our losses, and focus on finding a way out of this quagmire that leaves us and those who have supported us in the least devastated position possible. If the president is focused on history, this is a way to add a nobler epilogue to one of our darkest chapters.

 

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