There is no reason for the U.S. to let China pass us by
Many economists have estimated that if China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to grow at approximately 10 percent annually, and the United States continues to grow at its anemic rate of 2.5 percent or less, then China’s GDP will be bigger than ours in 15 to 20 years.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund released an analysis showing that if the differences in exchange rates between the two countries are factored out (purchasing power parity), then China will surpass the USA in economic strength in less than five years!
Neither of these observations sets well with the American psyche, and losing our economic dominance in the world is not who we are. But more importantly, China’s economic dominance would represent a national security threat to the USA, and possibly to the rest of the world.
Look at the facts. China has a billion more people than we do. They aspire to have a greater military might than we do. They currently hold over 25 percent of our national debt. And they have a different view of human rights and how to maintain peace in the world.
It would be naïve to think that China would not be tempted to flex its worldly might if it were bigger than us economically and militarily. And it would be equally naïve to think we could influence their actions on currency or anything else with diplomacy or two verses of Kumbaya.
Appeasement is not a strategy. As Ronald Reagan proved, strength is the strategy. Both the Bush and Obama administrations have shown that appeasement just buys the Chinese more time to talk until they can equal us in size and might.
Our China strategy should be three simple words. Outgrow them!
There is no doubt that we can outgrow China, but right now we lack the leadership with the courage to propose and implement aggressive economic growth strategies.
Liberals would have the public believe that lower taxes on workers and businesses are a bad thing, and that they only reward the rich and the fat corporate cats. They also have the public duped into believing that somehow reducing the tax burden on the earners and the producers of income doesn’t pay for itself.
Both assumptions are dead wrong. It’s just Class Warfare 101, and the class warfare warriors are winning for now. But I believe the public is smart enough to understand some Economics 101 to get us out of this stalled economic uncertainty.
We need to lower corporate tax rates, starting with dropping the top rate from 35 percent to 25 percent. We are the only nation on the planet that has not lowered its corporate tax rates in more than 15 years. And people wonder why so many jobs have left the USA. It’s not just cheaper labor in more business-friendly nations. It’s also taxes!
We must lower the capital gains tax rate to zero. Suspend taxes on repatriated foreign profits. Give every worker in America a 6.2 percent raise and every business a cost break by suspending the payroll tax for a year. Then! Make the tax rates permanent until they are lowered again in the future to remove this veil of uncertainty hanging over our economy.
Yes, these are aggressive proposals. It’s going to take aggressive leadership in the White House to get it done. It won’t be easy. But I don’t avoid doing what’s right just because it’s going to be difficult to achieve. That’s not in my DNA.
We can outgrow China because the USA is not a loser nation. We just need a winner in the White House. It can happen in 2012.
When the people understand it, they will demand it.
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“But more importantly, China’s economic dominance would represent a national security threat to the USA, and possibly to the rest of the world.”
Sir, where have you been? The USA IS the biggest threat to the rest of the world right now (Iraq,Iran,Afghanistan,Pakistan,Libya,Haiti,etc). The world needs another country to keep this bully in check. Balance is needed in the world.
Where is the Roman Empire? Pharaohic kingdom? Ottoman Empire? French Dominance? What goes up must come down. I thank God for that. Otherwise, us humans would become way too arrogant and deluded in our follies of grandeur!
Also, inasmuch as the US is focusing on everything thing else except its own welfare (mortgage crisis, deficit, national debt, poverty, weakening economy, decrease in quality of education, etc.) it is a threat to itself, or, in the very least, to its citizens.
Let it be that China takes over. To each his chance; we had ours and messed it up.
There is no reason that per capita wise the Chinese cannot even earn a quarter of what the US earn. In the long run as the world gets smaller, earnings per capita are likely to equalize . Of course the western world is doing all they could to prolong the process and even to the extend of sabotaging the process but it is inevitable .
At a per capita earnings of 60% of US, the economy of China and India ( in US dollar terms and not PPP) wiill both be more that twice that of US. Therefore the earlier the western world come to accept it , the easier it will be for everyone.
This is a good article and you are smart and I have read you before and I like your ideas but there is a huge problem. You do not understand the power of “growth mathematics”. The math goes something like this
Everything comes down to the number 70
If you grow by average of 5% per year then you take 70 and divide by 5 and get a doubling factor in 14 years. We also see the following:
1% per year growth for 70 years = 2 times growth
2% for 70 years a factor of 4
3 = 8
4 = 16
5 = 32
10 = over a thousand fold increase
For China to increase at its current rate means it must use twice as much resources in 7 years time at 10% per year or 1000 times current levels in a single human life time. This is impossible. Your solution is to add another China to the mix in direct competition with China. Not only is one China impossible to keep going but two China’s would be world wide suicide. You do not understand the math of what your talking about but you will in 2 years when China begins to implode because it is clear by the universal laws of math that China will begin imploding in 2 years.
Did you see how quick the US aircraft carrier moved out of the Japanese tsunami area when a small amount of radioactive contamination was detected. How hard they scrubbed to clean the decks. The whole world saw it. This is only a small radioactive leak from a nuclear reactor.
A nuclear war would be unimaginable. The US and Russia each has more than 10,000 nuclear war heads , one wonders for what?
Herman’s a great guy. Still using the same pic he did 15 years ago, I see. He was a good CEO, but that was Godfather’s Pizza, not an outstanding food product. And where is the company now? Did he set them up for future success?
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