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Memo to Snyder: Don’t stop the radical reforms now!Can the Republicans take back the Senate in 2010? You betcha!
February 15th, 2010 | 
Author: 
Jamie Weinstein
Can the Republicans take back the Senate in 2010?
In the words of a certain Alaskan politician, you betcha.
Two months ago you would have been certifiably insane for suggesting such an outlandish idea. But last month’s Massachusetts massacre has changed everything.
The tide is turning.
No one really saw what happened in the Bay state coming until it was basically upon us. And when I polled Indiana political experts before the election, all of them said that Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh was most definitely safe in 2010. So did all the national experts. As did all my friends who laughed at me for bringing up the idea of Bayh potentially being vulnerable.
Well, guess what? It turns out that Bayh now believes he is vulnerable enough that he is retiring instead of facing the voters in 2010.
While Bayh says he is not retiring because of his reelection prospects, this is a hard to believe. Indeed, his vulnerability almost certainly played a significant role in his decision. In a Rasmussen poll conducted in late January, Bayh polled behind Indiana Rep. Mike Pence (who ultimately decided not to run) and slightly ahead but within the margin of error against former Indiana Rep. John Hostettler, a less appealing candidate than Pence. More recently, seeing the vulnerability of Bayh, former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats decided to enter the race against him.
Before the Massachusetts massacre the most seasoned Indiana political experts saw Bayh as safe in the 2010 election. Afterward, the whole playing field changed. Bayh got out on his own terms instead of a facing a tough reelection where he could have very well been defeated.
The political winds which blew to the left in 2006 and 2008 are now strongly forecasted to blow right. The only question is will there be a breeze or a gale in 2010?
With Scott Brown taking Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat, Republicans now have 41 seats in the Senate and need to pick up 10 more in order to take control of the body. That’s a tall task, for sure. But it is no longer unthinkable.
Republicans have an excellent chance of taking the Senate seat in North Dakota, Nevada, Arkansas, and Delaware. Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are also considered to be toss-ups that could very well go to Republicans.
Add in Indiana, which now must be considered likely to go to the Republicans in 2010, and we have eight seats that Republicans could very well pick up with a pretty good election night.
But those aren’t the only seats in play.
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California is also considered as a possible pick-up by Republicans if the political winds point to change in 2010. In New York, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is seen as potentially vulnerable. While most political ratings shows Wisconsin as a safe seat in 2010, if former HUD Secretary Tommy Thompson gets in the race as some say he is considering, that seat would also be in serious play if it is not already. Indeed, a recent poll has Thompson leading Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold in a hypothetical matchup.
So now we have 11 seats. Republicans only need 10. And I haven’t even mentioned Connecticut, which was once considered extremely vulnerable, but has become much less so since Chris Dodd has said he will not run for reelection. While unlikely, it is not inconceivable that his seat also comes back into play.
Then there is Sen. Patty Murray of Washington. Few have Murray on the radar yet, but the Washington senator only won re-election with 55 percent in 2004. In an environment where a Republican can win Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat and Evan Bayh is so scared about his prospects for re-election that he retires before facing the voters, Murray may not be as safe as some think.
By my count, there are at least 13 seats which could potentially fall to the Republicans in the right political environment. Of course, Republicans also have to hold on to their seats. Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Kentucky rank among the most vulnerable Republican seats, though all of them could easily be held.
Upset with the way the Democrats have governed the country, 2010 may well be a huge year for Republicans electorally. If the conditions are right, it could be very well so huge that Republicans take back the Senate.
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32 Responses to “Can the Republicans take back the Senate in 2010? You betcha!”
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“As did all my friends who laughed at me for bringing up the idea of Bayh potentially being vulnerable.”
Would you have proof of these conversations? Otherwise, it kinda looks like you are tying to give yourself questionable credit.
I’m just sayin…
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